Happy November!
October was an "interesting" month. We will look at the sales numbers in a moment but first a couple of issues that have been a topic of discussion in many groups lately... we are over the local and provincial elections (and fortunately the American population saw the light shortly thereafter). We will see how all of these changes affect our market. There are a couple of other important variables that people are discussing.
Removal of the Federal Foreign Buyers' Ban
Many people assume that when the federal Foreign Buyers' Ban is removed in 2027 (assuming it is), it should positively impact our real estate market. Some seem to think foreign buyers will flood back into our market. However, given that both of the two hardest-hit markets in the country (BC and Ontario) have significant taxes imposed on foreign buyers, I don't think we will see much impact from this ban removal. In BC, the province imposes a 20% tax on home purchases by foreign buyers. This is a significant disincentive for many potential foreign buyers. Several years ago, Kate Winslet bought one of my listings. Because she was a foreign buyer, the tax applied-she was not super happy but did end up buying the house. The application of the tax resulted in the seller receiving less than they might have with a local buyer. The tax is a huge hit.
So, removing the Foreign Buyers Ban is unlikely to assist our market conditions. There may be a few more foreign buyers entering our market but I doubt it will make much of a difference..
Bank of Canada Rate and Mortgage Renewals
As you may have heard, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate by .25% in October. Generally speaking, there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and prices: if rates go up, prices go down because buyers lose some purchasing power. We will see how this plays out but some predict that, given how many people will be renewing low rate mortgages, the rate increase may be a factor further dampening sales activity in our region.
October Sales
The October data shows that this market is still taking its time-despite the amazing opportunities for first-time buyers, those wanting to upgrade and investors. In October, sales were down 10.2% from the same month last year, and new listings were down 11.6%. Both buyers and sellers stepped back, while prices continued to ease.
I was surprised at these numbers. We had our busiest month of the year, including a multiple offer situation (on a house priced at over $3 million dollars) which set a price record. I was hoping that maybe the market was picking up but apparently not. Detached homes do seem to be selling a bit better, in part because sellers are becoming more realistic. However, one shocking bit of news that came out recently was that there are apparently OVER TEN THOUSAND new condos sitting empty in Vancouver. Unless a condo is special, it is currently very hard to sell. Developers continue to offer incentives and for older condos, the situation is dire even when aggressively priced.
There is still plenty of choice for buyers. The number of homes for sale remains 24% above the 10-year seasonal average, even with fewer homes coming onto the market than last October.
The picture on price of course also varies by property type. Apartment sales had the largest year-over-year decline, down 16.7%, compared with a 7.2% decline for detached homes and 1.9% for attached homes (townhomes).
The Numbers
If we look at the October 2026 numbers, last month in Greater Vancouver we saw:
- Sales of all types of properties totalled 2,024, DOWN 10.2% from October 2025 and 22.5% BELOW the 10-year seasonal average of 2,612.
- The number of active listings was 15,688, DOWN 4.3% from October 2025, but 24.0% ABOVE the 10-year seasonal average.
- Newly listed properties totalled 4,805, DOWN 11.6% from October 2025 and 1.0% ABOVE the 10-year seasonal average.
- Detached home sales reached 643, DOWN 7.2% from October 2025.
- The detached benchmark price was $1,775,200, DOWN 7.0% from October 2025 and DOWN 0.5% from September 2026.
- The sales-to-active listings ratio was 13.4% overall and 11.6% for detached homes. The ratios were 16.5% for attached homes and 13.5% for apartments.
Click HERE for Stats Package provided by the Greater Vancouver Realtors
The composite benchmark price for all residential properties was $1,068,600, down 5.2% from a year ago and 0.7% from September. The apartment benchmark was $673,400, down 5.9% year over year and 1.3% from September, while the townhouse benchmark was $1,006,500, down 5.5% year over year and 1.0% from September.
GVR's historical analysis suggests downward pressure on prices when the sales-to-active listings ratio remains below 12% for a sustained period. Detached homes were just below that level in October, at 11.6%. One month's reading does not tell the whole story, but it is a measure worth watching alongside prices and sales.
For Buyers
With inventory above its seasonal average, there are more homes to compare than we would typically see at this time of year. The right choice still depends on the property, its condition, your budget and your longer-term plans. As has been the case for quite some time, buyers currently have more choice, more time to make decisions, and more control over pricing than we usually see in our market. As some economists have recently noted, we are likely at or near the bottom of the market in terms of prices so continuing to wait "for the bottom" could be a dangerous strategy.
For Sellers
Buyers have alternatives. Recent comparable sales and the competing homes available today are useful starting points for setting an asking price. Presentation and preparation also matter even more than usual when buyers can be selective.
If you are selling to buy another home, look at the whole move: the expected sale price, the cost of the next property and the costs of moving. If you are upgrading, the math likely works strongly in your favour even if you sell for less than planned. I have sold one of my own houses for less than I paid in a market where the gap worked in my favour to upgrade. Some people get too attached to the actual number when the focus should be on the gap AND on what makes sense for your life. As one of my very smart, very successful clients said recently, people sell stocks at a loss all the time when it makes sense to move that money. However, people are very reluctant to do the same with real estate even when it is the smart thing to do to move on with their life. He is correct-I think people sometimes don't live their best lives when they put life on hold due to market conditions.
If you would like to understand what these numbers mean for your neighbourhood or your plans, I am happy to help. Reply to this email or book a time to talk.
